On the prediction of glucose concentration under intra-patient variability in type 1 diabetes: A monotone systems approach

TitleOn the prediction of glucose concentration under intra-patient variability in type 1 diabetes: A monotone systems approach
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2012
Authorsde Pereda D, Romero-Vivo S, Ricarte B, Bondia J
JournalComputer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine
ISSN01692607
Abstract

Insulin therapy in type 1 diabetes aims to mimic the pattern of endogenous insulin secre-
tion found in healthy subjects. Glucose–insulin models are widely used in the development
of new predictive control strategies in order to maintain the plasma glucose concentration
within a narrow range, avoiding the risks of high or low levels of glucose in the blood.
However, due to the high variability of this biological process, the exact values of the
model parameters are unknown, but they can be bounded by intervals. In this work, the
computation of tight glucose concentration bounds under parametric uncertainty for the
development of robust prediction tools is addressed.
A monotonicity analysis of the model states and parameters is performed. An analy-
sis of critical points, state transformations and application of differential inequalities are
proposed to deal with non-monotone parameters. In contrast to current methods, the guar-
anteed simulations for the glucose–insulin model are carried out by considering uncertainty
in all the parameters and initial conditions. Furthermore, no time-discretisation is required,
which helps to reduce the computational time significantly. As a result, we are able to compute
a tight glucose envelope that bounds all the possible patient’s glycemic responses with
low computational effort.

URLhttp://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169260712001502
DOI10.1016/j.cmpb.2012.05.012